Download this lab as a Word document: Lab 4: IPCC Projections for the 21st Century [1]. (Please download required files below.)
In this lab, we will be observing the projections for temperature and precipitation with the different emissions scenario. These projections were made in 2009 after the 4th report of the IPCC, but the overall patterns have not changed that much.
The goal of this lab is:
1. To observe the differences between the outcomes for temperature and climate change for the different scenarios, A2 (the worst case), A1B and B1 (the best case).
Load the IPCC Scenarios.kmz [2] file. This file allows you to observe the change in temperature (in degrees relative to the mean from 1961-1990) and precipitation (in mm/day relative to the mean from 1961-1990) in two different ways. You can look at the slider at the top left and observe the projections for a narrow time frame (like a month or a year) or you can look at the decadal averages using the buttons in the places box at right. For the purpose of this lab, we will use the decadal averages using the buttons. The temperature scale for the projections is very confusing and does not match the colors in the maps. Thus, we have created a new scale New Temperature Legend.kmz [3] which will cover the old file. You must also open that file as well.
Warning, the continent positions are very faint once the projection maps are loaded, so you will need to click the “turn layers off” button at the bottom of places on and off to view the locations of the continents. You might also want to have a map of the US and other continents on if you are unfamiliar with US geography.
Again, we begin with Practice Questions that will provide you with experience of the type of questions you will receive in the Graded Assignment. Make sure you take them and check your answers in Canvas before moving on to the Graded Assignment, which is entirely in Canvas. It is critical that you have a reliable Internet connection because you will get only one chance to take the lab.
Make sure both kmz files are loaded into Google Earth.
Before you turn on the Climate Projections, please center your screen over Australia at an altitude of 3000-4000 mi. Make sure you notice the difference between desert in the middle (browns and reds) and more lush areas on the coasts (greens). In the lab, you will be comparing model projections of how precipitation and temperature will change with the three different emissions scenarios, high emissions (A2), medium emissions (A1B) and low emissions (B1). Do the best you can to distinguish between the colors; we allow a range of answers based on the different possibilities. Find a map of Australia showing the major cities (or you can search for them in Google Earth).
Compare projections for 2000 decade with 2070 decade and with scenarios A2 and B Make sure you take into account the minor temperature increase in the 2000 decade seen in the light yellow colors (over the 1961-1990 decade). The light yellow color is generally about 1oC. Note not every temperature range is represented on the map. Match the colors above 3oC.
Compare projections for 2000 decade with 2090 decade and with just A. Make sure you take into account the minor precipitation increase in the 2000 decade (over the 1961-1990 decade). Note the amounts are in mm/day!
Now, look at the whole globe under the medium emissions scenario (A1B). I recommend you move to an altitude of 6000 to 7000 mi and use the “turn layer off” button on and off frequently to know where you are.
Links
[1] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.earth103/files/Lab%204.docx
[2] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.earth103/files/module04/IPCC%20Scenarios.kmz
[3] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.earth103/files/module04/New%20Temperature%20Legend.kmz