Policy decisions made in the past are relevant as well, because business-as-usual assumes that we continue doing what we have done in the recent past, which in turn is based on policies that were adopted further in the past. Consider the case of rural electrification and wind.
As told below (click on link below) before his election as US president, Abraham Lincoln gave a speech highlighting the value of learning and inventing, and in particular pointing out the potential for wind power in places such as his home state of Illinois. Rapid development followed, with the wind power initially used primarily for pumping water, but increasingly with generators and batteries to provide electricity for remote farms.
Many people are surprised that Lincoln was a promoter of wind energy, but he believed deeply in education and the good that science and engineering could do for people. He was an inventor, the only US president with a patent to his name, as described in this clip from the Earth: The Operators’ Manual team. And, in signing the bill founding the US National Academy of Sciences, he gave the US and the world a highly respected source of unbiased information on science. Take a look at this slightly longer than 5-minute clip to learn more.
Earth: The Operators' Manual
Credit: Earth: The Operators' Manual [1]. "Abraham Lincoln and the Founding of the National Academy of Sciences [2]." YouTube. October 6, 2012.
However, beginning in 1935, the US Government supported a program of rural electrification, providing loans and in other ways promoting centrally sourced electricity for remote farms, often with coal-fired generation systems. The advent of such centralized, subsidized power made off-the-grid systems less competitive. Many other forces were at work as well, but the government actions on topics including rural electrification and interstate highways have contributed to increased fossil-fuel use.
PRESENTER: This picture from the US National Archives shows the TVA, the Tennessee Valley Authority, during the 1930s, engaged in rural electrification, bringing power to the people. They built dams to make hydroelectric power, but they also used coal, and the government helped bring the wires that brought the electricity to people.
This government decision had a lot of winners that included the people they got the power, it included people who were building coal fired power plants, and people building dams. It also had losers, including people who made windmills, because with the government supporting this centralized power coming in through the wire, getting your own distributed power from your own windmill was less favorable.And so when governments make decisions, they really do have winners and losers. And the situation we have now, with more coal than wind, in part comes from decisions that were made in the past by the government.
You may hear people say that it is not the government's business to regulate energy or subsidize renewable energy research and infrastructure. What examples could you provide to show that the government has been supporting energy projects for a long time, and many of these projects have favored fossil fuels?
Click for answer.
So, recognize that there are more reasons for disagreement on the nature of a fossil-fuel subsidies than on the radiative effects of the CO2 from burning the fossil fuel. And, Dr. Alley would be happier reporting the current state of policies if the relevant literature were broader and deeper, with more impartial assessments.
Still, the sources cited here are reliable, and together present a clear picture. Suppose we ask where we are on a spectrum of possible policies, extending from “work really hard now to reduce future global warming” through “neutral” to “work really hard now to accelerate future global warming.” Based on the sources cited here, the best estimate of the net effect of past and ongoing government policies and government-funded research is still on the “accelerate global warming” side of neutral for the world and for the US. Policies probably are moving toward neutral, with renewables gaining in research and subsidies, but with more to do to reach a balanced approach, and even more to reach an economically efficient position. And, considering the inertia of the current system, moving well past neutral may be required to really overcome the history of fossil-fuel promotion.
For a little more Enrichment on policies, have a look at this short clip. This is a very U.S.-centered piece, and while we in this course have tried to avoid telling you what to do, some of the people interviewed in this clip were happy to offer their opinions.
Earth: The Operators' Manual
Credit: Earth: The Operators' Manual [1]. "Avoid the Energy Abyss" (Powering the Planet) [3]." YouTube. April 22, 2012.