Markets and demand for refinery products depend on the dynamics of a global economy. It is generally agreed that oil and gas will continue to be the primary energy resource in the U.S. and world economies for decades to come. Because of the projected increase in the production of oil in tight formations, the United States is expected to become an exporter of petroleum products and crude oil after decades of being an importer (Figure 1.2, EIA Annual 2013, eia.gov). Petroleum fuels will continue to dominate the transportation sector, but the following trends should be noted:
Competitive forces in the global economy lead to joint ventures and mergers and shutting down of inefficient refineries, or shutting down of processing units with low efficiency within refineries. Figure 1.3 shows the changes in the refinery capacity and number of refineries in the U.S. since 2000. The increasing refining capacity, with the decreasing number of refineries, results in the closing down of small inefficient refineries while expanding the large refineries.
Regarding the global competition, the technological advancement addresses the degrading quality of crude oils to produce cleaner and higher quality petroleum fuels. On the supply side, there is the increasing abundance of natural gas liquids (ethane, propane, n-butane, and isobutane) due to increased shale gas production in the U.S. and elsewhere. These liquids enter refineries as new feedstock in addition to crude oil supply.
Refineries need process improvements to advance their capabilities to deal with the changing crude oil base and changing environmental regulations. These improvements in refinery processes would need to create and use, for example:
Concerns for efficiency include running a refinery efficiently and producing fuels that will burn efficiently in the combustion engines, as follows: