Speculation about the future of refining is risky at best, but some trends are described as to be more certain by Self, Ekholm, and Bowers [5], as follows:
Figure 11.7 lists four factors that may influence the future of petroleum refining, including product demand, crude supply, environmental regulations, and new technology development. It is expected that in the near future, the demand for distillate fuels will keep increasing, while the conventional crude oil slate will become heavier and more contaminated. This conflict between the trends in supply and demand that is aggravated by stricter environmental regulations on the purity of fuels can be mitigated by new and more effective technologies (processes and catalysts). Although the conventional crude oils are becoming heavier (Figure 11.8), non-conventional liquids such as synthetic crude oil from oil sands in Canada and shale gas liquid by-products are lighter than the conventional crude oils and could be used as blend components to dilute the heavy crudes. Natural gas liquids and coal-derived liquids may also be used as alternative feedstocks for refining. The diversity in crude oil supply calls out the need to plan/operate a more flexible and versatile refinery.
[1.] F. Self, E. Ekholm, and K. Bowers, Refining Overview - Petroleum, Processes and Products, AIChE, 2000, Chapter 1.
Figure 11.9 recaps some considerations for the future refinery, as discussed above, and lists the future challenges that include the need to process heavier and more contaminated crude oils to produce cleaner products than before. Production of diesel from highly aromatic by-product from FCC (LCO) remains a concern for the cost and quality of diesel fuel produced in the U.S. refineries. Also, extensive hydrotreatment to comply with the limits on heteroatom levels in fuels would negatively affect the octane numbers of gasoline because during hydrotreatment, olefins and aromatic compounds may be hydrogenated, thus reducing the octane number. No such conflict exists for diesel fuel, because cetane number of diesel actually increases with hydrogenation. It is clear that the hydrogen demand for the future refinery will keep increasing, and refineries will build or expand the existing hydrogen production capacity.