In this lesson, we will be exploring some additional applications of geospatial intelligence, including areas of US Law Enforcement, International Human Relief operations, and Cyberspace applications. In addition, we are asking you to do your own investigation into new applications. We will have an abbreviated discussion at the end of the lesson.
At the end of this lesson, you will be able to:
If you have any questions now or at any point during this week, please feel free to post them to the GEOG 882 - General Discussion Forum in Canvas.
Lesson 10 will take us one week to complete. Please refer to the Calendar in Canvas for specific time frames and due dates. Specific directions for the assignments below can be found within this lesson.
Law enforcement analysis promotes effective policing in areas such as conducting investigations and intelligence operations, planning and managing resources, and deterring criminal activity. Geographic information science and technology (GIS&T) and geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) assist in these areas. From the beginning of an investigation to its conclusion, analysis can aid in determining what is needed in an investigation and where it can be collected. Analytical charts, maps, and reports help guide the operation. Analysis can identify crime trends and provide strategic assessments that assist policy makers in resource allocation and long-term planning. Law enforcement analysis supports the deterrence and prevention of crime through identifying patterns of criminal incidents, forecasting threats to the community, assisting in the effective deployment of patrol resources, and supporting community policing efforts.
Before discussing the various applications of GIS&T and GEOINT in law enforcement analysis, it is useful to examine several behavioral theories, looking at them from a geospatial perspective. These theories are not discussed in detail, but they do build upon each other. The material includes references for additional research. Individuals who have studied criminology might be familiar with these theories. These theories also have applications to studying terrorism.
Choices are made based on opportunities and rewards.
George Homans built a series of explanatory principles based on the assumption that people make rational choices about how to maximize benefits in light of their priorities. This perspective suggests that individuals, such as criminals and terrorists, will select their targets and define the means to achieve their goals in an explainable manner. (Homans, G. 1974. Social Behavior, Its Elementary Forms, 2nd ed. New York: Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich)
Opportunities change based on changes in behavior.
Lawrence Cohen and Marcus Felson studied crime as an event and highlighted the relationship of these events to space and time. Routine activity theory explains an event through three essential elements that converge in space and time – the potential offender with the capacity to commit an offense, a suitable target or victim, and the absence of guardians capable of protecting the target or victim. (Cohen, L. & Felson, M. 1979. Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44, 588-608)
Crimes occur where offender’s space overlaps with victim’s space.
Crime pattern theory highlights spatial ties connecting crime, targets, and patterns of movement of offenders. The theory relates that offenders commit crimes near areas where they spend most of their time and along routes that connect them. The concept of space is essential to crime pattern theory because the characteristics of spaces influence the likelihood of a crime. (Brantingham, P. L. & Brantingham, P. J. 1993. Environmental, routine, and situation: Toward a pattern theory of crime. Advances in Criminological Theory 5: 259-294)
Identify and alter geographical characteristics that contribute to criminal predation.
Crime prevention through environmental design is a micro/neighborhood approach to identifying conditions of the physical and social environment that provide opportunities for criminality. It uses such mechanisms as real and symbolic barriers, defined areas of influence, and opportunities for surveillance to bring an environment under the control of its residents (Jeffrey, C. R. 1971. Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Newman, O. 1973. Defensible Space. New York: Collier Books)
Following are several analytic techniques that can be used to produce geospatial intelligence, considering the nature of intelligence and the grounding of the previously described theories.
Crime mapping is the process of using a geographic information system to conduct spatial analysis of crime problems and other police-related issues. It facilitates visual and statistical analyses of crime, allows linkages based on common variables, and helps to communicate results of analysis. (Boba, R. 2022. Crime Analysis and Crime Mapping 5th edition. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.)
Police data includes: criminal incidents, arrests, calls for service, and traffic crashes and incidents. To see how an agency has incorporated crime mapping, go to the Philadelphia Police Department's Crime Maps and Stats [11]site.
Geographic distribution analysis examines the occurrence of events over a geographic area to determine what can be concluded about the activity. To complete a geographic distribution analysis, data on the locations of activities are collected and plotted on a map. Then, the information is reviewed to create a summary of what is depicted and from which to draw conclusions as to what the information means. (Peterson, M. B. 1994. Applications in Criminal Analysis. Westport, CT: Greenwood)
The following is an interactive website from Esri on crime mapping that allows you to analyze the geographic distribution of crime in the US versus various demographics. Crime Mapping [16].
The map below depicts a geographic flow chart that shows the movement of activities from one location to another. To complete this analysis, an analyst would summarize the information and draw conclusions about the activity to provide to a decision-maker.
Spatial analysis explores relationships within and between data in space and provides the ability to define characteristics of the data as they relate to other information. (Steinberg, S. L. & Steinberg, S. J. 2015. GIS Research Methods. Redlands, CA: Esri Press) In the criminal justice field, spatial analysis creates a snapshot of crime incidents and related factors within a geographic area. Looking for patterns is one aspect of spatial analysis. Patterns can be found in locations, distances, direction, and hot spots. One application of spatial analysis in the fight against human trafficking can be found at A Global Display of Human Trafficking Incidents and News. [18]
Public Domain Image:
Credit: Homicides in Washington, DC [19] by User:Aude [20] from Wikimedia [21](Public Domain [22]).
You can use GIS&T and GEOINT for other purposes as well. Some examples include:
You will explore a website and a publication that lay out the basics of crime analysis and crime map production.
The website is from the National Institute of Justice (NIJ). The NIJ is the research and development and evaluation agency of the United States Department of Justice.
The US Department of Justice Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) was established in 1994. Since then, COPS has provided over $11.3 billion in assistance to state and local law enforcement agencies that included hiring additional police officers and running specialized training and workshops. In 2001 COPS funded the Police Foundation to conduct an “Introduction to Crime Analysis Mapping and Problem Solving” training course.
Readings can be accessed from the Lesson 10 Checklist [26].
As you explore the NIJ website and the Guide to Crime Analysis and Mapping, do some critical thinking and consider these questions:
International disasters can be even more complex than domestic disasters. In the last lesson on Hurricane Katrina, we saw the challenges faced by the US government, state and local governments, and NGOs in dealing with a major hurricane disaster. Consider, however, that only one set of national laws applied, most people spoke the same language, and the resources of the rest of the US could be brought to bear. Now consider the challenge for US government and NGO personnel when working on an international disaster relief mission. The host nation government is in charge and their laws apply. There could be several affected nations, thus there could be several sets of laws and several different languages with which to contend. The affected nation could quite probably be a developing world nation with far less infrastructure and fewer resources than what is found in the US. The affected populations may have a far higher number of citizens who are of a lower socio-economic status, with far fewer personal resources than in the US (think social justice issues on a much larger scale). US government elements will usually work with several other partner nations providing relief, as well as many more local and international NGOs. The point here is that international humanitarian relief operations can be very complex.
Just as GIS&T has a major contribution to make to domestic disaster preparedness and relief, it also has great potential for support of international humanitarian aid and relief operations. Many of the same challenges found in domestic activities apply to international efforts. US Government geospatial intelligence (already challenged at the inter-agency level) faces even greater challenges and constraints when dealing with partner nations and organizations that might not be particularly sympathetic or friendly to the United States. Read the following selections and consider how geospatial intelligence can be leveraged by governments, intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to support international disaster relief and humanitarian aid agencies. Consider the limitations faced by the US government and how such limitations might be overcome.
You will watch a short video from the Geospatial Revolution series on applications of geospatial technology in the 2010 Haitian Earthquake. You will then review three short articles that approach this topic from different perspectives.
Mirroring the question concerning geospatial intelligence and law enforcement, do some critical thinking and consider these questions as you review the material below:
Readings can be accessed from the Lesson 10 Checklist [26] (and from Canvas).
Dr. Michael Thomas is the original author of Geography 489 [28] " Cyber-Geography in Geospatial Intelligence", and is also one of the instructors for Geography 882. He has worked as an analyst for HQEUCOM in Stuttgart, Germany, in the Cyberspace Division, as a Professor of Cyberwarfare Studies at the AIr War College and USAF Cyber College at Maxwell AFB and is currently the Deputy Director of the National Cyber Range Complex (NCRC) - Charleston Node. He is very interested in how geographic information science and technology (GIS&T) can be applied to the emerging field of Cyberspace both within and outside the government. There are two dimensions to Cyberattacks – collecting of intelligence from nations that are of interest to us, and realizing that others are constantly collecting on us.
Information is the only asset that is stolen by replication. As such, securing it is problematic because for it to be of any use it also needs to be available for access. In the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks, the US government began instituting information protection policies aimed at increasing homeland security. The aim of these policies was to minimize the targets of opportunity that could be exploited by potential attackers using publicly available information they might obtain from authoritative public (federal, state and local) sources in planning attacks against the US homeland.
One of the outcomes of these policies is the “National Cybersecurity Strategy” that was released in March 2023. The DoD has stated that “The Department and the nation have vulnerabilities in cyberspace. Our reliance on cyberspace stands in stark contrast to the inadequacy of our cybersecurity – the security of the technologies that we use each day.” DoD strategy flows from both the National Cybersecurity Strategy and the National Defense Strategy.
There are thousands of networks, incalculable data assets freely in the open, and adversaries – individuals, groups, and nation-states, that can and will use our own information sources against us. It raises the question – how much information should a free society place in the open?
The full study is available from The Rand Corporation Website [29].
NOTE: For this assignment, you need only read the Executive Summary.
Between 2004 and 2023, Cyberspace evolved into a mature operating domain. For many reasons, many of them political or driven by DOD component infighting, no final concrete policy existed before this and the debate to establish a separate CYBERCOM took years to finalize between the sister services within the DoD, with a final definition of cyberspace finally being imposed on the DoD by Gordon England in May 2008.
Readings can be accessed from the Lesson 10 Checklist [26].
You will compare and contrast these two publications that lay out some of the basics of Geo-based Cyberspace analysis and cyber map production.
As you read, do some critical thinking and ask yourself:
Video: The Cyber War Threat Has Been Grossly Exaggerated. [30] (1:38:00) (Transcript [31])
The debate still continues. After listening, offer a perspective of whether the debate affected your view.
Information technology infrastructure has changed in the last 10 years. Currently, an integration of geolocating technologies with communications infrastructures has made possible dynamic changes in Northern Africa and parts of the Middle East.
Let us examine a few facts concerning the integration of technologies in Africa over the last decade.
Low-cost, abundant, easily distributed information lowers transaction costs, which affects the nature of institutions and organizations. When internet connectivity was mostly carried on satellites it (and the transaction costs) was high. As these cables come online, the transactions costs are going to come down. Infrastructure increases in Africa will eventually lead to increases in information flow and associated increases in relational aspects between distant points. What could formerly be characterized as "Terra Incognita" is changing with increases in infrastructure.
Would the "Arab Spring" have been possible before 2009? The lack of infrastructure makes it doubtful. Once all the cables are in place, Africa's total bandwidth will increase from 6 terabytes/second (tbps) to well over 40tbps. Currently, there are over half a billion Africans connected to the global system through cell phones and the Internet, and this number is going to dramatically increase.
The graph above shows the continent-wide penetration rate of different Information-Communication technologies (ICTs). Notable here is the huge increase in wireless penetration - almost 33% continent-wide that does not require as much infrastructure as traditional landlines. This continent-wide picture does not paint a fully accurate picture. While the overall number is correct, the penetration rates in North Africa show a different story when reviewed separately. Too much variation is concealed in the overall continental rate but becomes apparent when examined more regionally. In the Mahgreb, the rates were almost twice as much as the continental average and increased steadily to over 100% in some places, meaning that some subscribers actually had more than 1 phone by 2010.
The former Director of National Intelligence (DNI), General James Clapper, hinted at the IC's interests in some of the aspects of intelligence collection in an interview in the December 2011 issue of Geospatial Intelligence Review,
"I see all kinds of benefits (from combining collection and analysis). There are a lot of examples that I can't cite because they are classified. But I will say that I think we will be better able to address an Arab Spring, for example, and better able to anticipate it and respond to it."
The richness of available open source data, generated either by social media or other sources, is too complex to accumulate and analyze using current approaches. Currently, analysts often use multiple sources of information in order to create actionable intelligence for a mission. The datasets are large in volume and are likely stored in multiple databases and multiple locations. This requires tailored queries into the systems to be prespecified, filtering significant amounts of data before an analyst has an opportunity to decide if it is important. This query-retrieve paradigm effectively removes the possibility of the "lucky find," because the analyst has to already know what they want to query. Looking forward, the datasets are becoming more connected and the transaction costs are decreasing. The volume of pseudo-humint available from social media is one result of the increase in this connectivity infrastructure, and the impacts are both unpredictable and unforeseen. At a minimum, it raises the following questions for our consideration:
Emerging technologies also pose unique challenges and threats. ChatGPT [34], when queried about the threats in cyber to GeoInt replied:
"The dangers of cyberspace in the GeoInt (Geospatial Intelligence) environment are multifaceted and significant. They can be categorized into several key areas:
Cyber Espionage and Data Theft: In a GeoInt environment, where sensitive geospatial data is used, cyber espionage is a major threat. Unauthorized access to this data can lead to the theft of classified information, compromising national security and intelligence operations.
Cyberattacks on Critical Infrastructure: GeoInt often involves infrastructure critical to national security, like satellite communications, GPS systems, and other space-based assets. Cyberattacks on these systems can disrupt essential services, leading to significant strategic disadvantages.
Manipulation of Geospatial Data: The integrity of geospatial data is crucial. If this data is manipulated or altered, it can lead to incorrect intelligence assessments, affecting decision-making in critical situations such as military operations or disaster response.
Information Warfare: In the realm of GeoInt, information warfare, including the spread of misinformation and propaganda, can be facilitated through cyberspace. This can undermine trust in institutions and disrupt geopolitical stability.
Supply Chain Attacks: GeoInt systems often rely on a complex supply chain that includes software and hardware components from various sources. Cyberattacks targeting these supply chains can compromise the integrity of geospatial intelligence systems.
Insider Threats: The risk posed by insiders, such as employees or contractors with access to GeoInt systems, is significant. They might intentionally or unintentionally cause harm by leaking sensitive information or introducing vulnerabilities into the system.
Lack of Standardized Security Protocols: In the GeoInt environment, the lack of standardized cybersecurity protocols across different nations and organizations can create vulnerabilities. Disparate systems and practices can lead to gaps in security defenses.
Emerging Technologies: The rapid evolution of technology, including AI and quantum computing, presents new challenges in cybersecurity. These technologies can be used to create more sophisticated cyberattacks that are harder to detect and defend against.
Legal and Ethical Concerns: Navigating the legal and ethical aspects of cyber operations in GeoInt is complex, especially when it comes to cross-border data sharing and surveillance activities.
Resource Constraints: Finally, the challenge of allocating adequate resources (like skilled personnel and funding) to cybersecurity in the GeoInt sector cannot be overlooked. This includes the need for continuous training and updating of systems to counter evolving cyber threats.
Given these threats, it's crucial for organizations and nations involved in GeoInt to invest in robust cybersecurity measures, conduct regular risk assessments, and foster international cooperation to enhance collective cyber defense capabilities."
CHAT GPT, response to “threats in cyber to GeoInt,” CHAPT GPT, Dec. 3, 2023.
Completion of this lesson:
Return to Lesson 10 in Canvas. Look for the Lesson 10 - GRADED Discussion Forum (#4), where you will find the three topics for this assignment. You will at a minimum address two of the three topics. You may address all three topics if you wish. The minimum requirement is that each of you post one primary response to two of the three discussion topics: Crime Analysis, IHR, or Cyberspace. You must then comment on at least TWO of your classmates' posts. You must then provide a primary post on the course feedback question. (Five total posts - three primary posts and two comments.) There is no need to comment on the course feedback question.
Remember to analyze the questions to determine specified and implied requirements, explicitly demonstrate your higher order and critical thinking skills, show me you read the required readings, and that you did some research if required. I challenge you to try and see beyond your cultural filters (which are sometimes blinders) and view these issues from a higher level or different perspective.
Note: Please post your primary response to the questions by Sunday evening to allow time for everyone to post comments by Tuesday night.
Return to Canvas and look for the link to the World Campus SEEQ Survey, where you will access the survey. NOTE: Information in this survey is strictly confidential, and has NO impact whatsoever on course grades.
Before you close your books, double-check the Lesson 10 Checklist [26] to make sure you have completed all of the required activities for this lesson.
This concludes the course. It was a pleasure having you in this class, and thank you for all your hard work in completing this course. All of you have been very professional, and I have learned as much from you as I hope you have learned from the course.
Check the Grades to ensure you have credit for all your assignments. I will submit final grades to Penn State no later than 48 hours after the final day of class, and I will also email individually with your course grade. It will probably be a few weeks before the grades are officially posted in eLion (e.g., your transcript).
Do not forget to register for the next course. We wish you the best in the future and hope the knowledge and skills you gained from this course will contribute to your success.
Mark Corson, Greg Thomas, Mike Thomas, and Steve Handwerk
GEOG 882 Course Faculty
Links
[1] https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/crime-mapping-crime-forecasting-evolution-place-based-policing
[2] http://www.esa.int/esapub/bulletin/bulletin122/bul122e_bally.pdf
[3] http://www.esa.int
[4] https://odihpn.org/publication/using-satellite-imagery-to-improve-emergency-relief/
[5] http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/spring10articles/un-uses-gis.html
[6] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog882/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.geog882/files/file/mapping_the_risks_sum.pdf
[7] https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/National-Cybersecurity-Strategy-2023.pdf
[8] https://media.defense.gov/2018/Sep/18/2002041658/-1/-1/1/CYBER_STRATEGY_SUMMARY_FINAL.PDF
[9] http://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SMA/ispab/documents/DOD-Strategy-for-Operating-in-Cyberspace.pdf
[10] https://permanent.access.gpo.gov/gpo8072/introguidecrimeanalysismapping.pdf
[11] https://www.phillypolice.com/crimestats/
[12] https://www.flickr.com/photos/brettlider/323381483
[13] https://www.flickr.com/photos/brettlider/
[14] https://www.flickr.com/
[15] https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
[16] https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/ed1164bca35c4b8e9c31fcbb3395d8e4
[17] https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/mexican-cartels-areas-influence
[18] http://human.globalincidentmap.com/
[19] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:DChomicides.jpg
[20] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Aude
[21] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
[22] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Commons:Copyright_tags/Country-specific_tags#United_States_of_America
[23] http://www.familywatchdog.us/
[24] http://www.onstar.com/
[25] http://www.lojack.com/For-Law-Enforcement
[26] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog882_2023/node/2034
[27] https://www.geospatialrevolution.psu.edu/index.html
[28] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog479/node/508
[29] http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG142.html
[30] https://www.intelligencesquaredus.org/debate/cyber-war-threat-has-been-grossly-exaggerated/#/
[31] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog882/node/2099
[32] http://www.oii.ox.ac.uk/research/projects/?id=59
[33] https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/publications/wtid.aspx
[34] https://chat.openai.com/