From Meteorology to Mitigation: Understanding Global Warming

Multivariate Regression Demonstration

Sample illustration of linear regression tool.
Figure 3.23: Regression tool.
Credit: Michael Mann

We will now investigate the multivariate generalization of ordinary linear regression, using a data set of Northern Hemisphere land temperature data over the past century. We will attempt to statistically model the observed data in terms of a set of three predictors: (1) estimates from a simple climate model (discussed in our next lesson) known as an Energy Balance Model that has been driven by estimated historical anthropogenic (greenhouse gas and aerosol) and natural (volcanic and solar) radiative forcing histories, and two internal climate phenomena discussed in the previous subsection: the (2) DJF Niño3.4 index, measuring the influence of the El Niño phenomenon, and the (3) DJFM NAO index.

The demonstration is in 4 parts below (click each link to open a new window and then the arrow to begin the demonstration):

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

You can play around with the data sets used in this example yourself using the Linear Regression Tool.