12.3. Solar Heating and Cooling Status and Trends

NIGEL COTTON: Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, depending on where you are in the world. And welcome to today's webcast, "Status of Solar Heating and Cooling Worldwide" is brought to you by solarthermalworld.org.

This webinar is jointly organized by REN21 Secretariat. And international agency Solar Heating and Cooling Technology Program. I am Nigel Cotton, founder of solarthermalworld.org and program director at the European Copper Institute. I am your moderator for today.

Before we begin, I'll just give you a few housekeeping announcements. This webinar is designed to be interactive between you and the presenters. Slides will be available within 48 hours of the end of the webinar on solarthermalworld.org. This presentation is being recorded.

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The web and will last about one hour, 30 minutes, 20 minutes for each presentation and approximately 20 minutes of Q&A after the presentations. If you are experiencing problems with the program, please refresh your browser or close your window and relaunch the presentation.

OK. Now, onto today's presentations. Discussing today's topic will be Rana Adib, the research coordinator at REN21 Secretariat. And she will be highlighting the status of renewable energies based on REN21's Renewables 2016 Global Status report. Following her will be Werner Weiss. He's director of the Austrian Institute AEE INTEC and co-author of the study "Solar Heat Worldwide from the IAA Solar Heating Cooling Program" Werner will share key data on solar heating and cooling from the study on added capacity, prospering application, jobs, and costs.

The third speaker will be Barbel Epp, news editor of the solarthermalworld.org and author of the Global Status Report Section Solar Heating and Cooling Market and Industry Trends. We'll present recent developments in the industry and policy.

My name is Nigel Cotton. I am a founding member of ESTIF, the European Solar and Thermal Industry Federation. And part of several organizations and founder of solarthermalworld.org.

OK. Now we will move on to the presentations. The first one is from Rana. So, Rana, your slides are now up. OK. You may begin, Rana.

RANA ADIB: OK. Thank you very much, Nigel, and thanks for the introduction and the opportunity to do the webinar and collaboration with you. Hello, everybody. I'm very happy to have this opportunity to speak about the topic, which is not always so visible, but very important when we are talking about the energy transition. And I'm really excited also to host this webinar together with AAE INTEC, the IA Solar Heating and Cooling progarm and SORICO, as well as Solar Thermal World.

So I will present to you some key results of the Renewables 2016 Global Status report, which REN21, which is a renewable energy pulse network for the 21st century, is producing every year. Sorry.

Hello? Nigel, could you eventually show the slides? Can you hear me?

NIGEL COTTON: Yeah. Is that visible now?

RANA ADIB: Yes. It's visible. Thank you. Sorry for that. So what is REN21? We are a global multi-stakeholder network which is dedicated to the rapid uptake of renewable energy worldwide. And we're representing basically a network of different types of organizations. There are NGOs, science and academia, international organizations, national government, and industry association.

It's basically the coalition of the willing to reach the energy transition building on renewable energy. The objective is really to foster renewable energy deployments, focusing in particular also on the policy and regulatory angle of it.

Sorry. I got an error, again. Sorry for that, Nigel. OK. Sorry for this.

So every year-- I'm mentioning the fact that it's multi-focal in network because this is something which is really fundamental also to our approaches when we are producing the Renewable Global Status report. It is a report which is produced as a collaborative effort of a network of 700 experts worldwide, of which something like 350 are really actively participating.

And this report is basically aiming to illustrate in a very neutral way the status of renewable energy. There is a focus on the global overview, which is looking in particular at the power sector, heating, and cooling, and transport market and industry trends where we're looking into the different renewable and the technologies, distributed renewable energy for energy access.

The investment flow. This is in cooperation with UNAP and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The policy landscape since two years-- actually, we have a full section of energy efficiency, just because the energy transition is not possible if we do not also look into energy demand. And this is certainly a topic which also needs to be-- I mean, the awareness needs to be raised. It needs more integrated approaches also, looking into renewables and energy efficiency.

And we have a feature every year, which is changing. In this edition, we have a feature specifically on community renewable energy. So the report covers all renewable energy technologies, power, heating, and cooling, and transfer sector. Data collected throughout the process are available on the Renewables interactive map.

Here you see the community. And I'm mentioning this because we also see that basically the data for the heating and cooling sector is often more dispersed. So we're really looking or are trying to mobilize lots of players who think that they might have a piece of the puzzle, basically, to contribute here.

Our objective is clearly to strengthen the section on heating and cooling and on transfer, just because we see that there is a big focus on power from policymakers, from industry. But we need to address these factors more. And that's also why we're really happy to have this webinar. So if you have the impression that you could be interested or could contribute, please don't hesitate to contact me.

So what is the status in 2016? It has been an extraordinary year for renewal energy, with 147 gigawatt of renewable power capacity added in 2015, which is the largest annual increase ever. So this is really significant. It's also important to mention that the inflow capacities in new power-- the new added capacities in the power sector exceed for the second time the installed capacities in fossil fuel-based power generation capacity.

So here we clearly see that there is a big trend towards renewable energy power. And this is driven very much by the wind and the PV sector, and obviously also by low cost or decrease cost in these sectors.

In the renewable heat sector, there is also a positive trend with an increased capacity of 38 gigawatt thermal. However, the developments are at a slower pace. Total biofuels production also rose. So when we hear these positive trends occur, it's important to keep in mind that in 2016, basically, the fossil fuel prices were really low, which mean that-- which makes renewables shine more, I guess, because they have been so successful.

We have some renewable energy indicators, but there are obviously also some champions. When we are looking into the investment and the renewable power and fuels, not including large hydro, the front runners are China, the US, Japan, United Kingdom, and India.

The picture is very different when we bring this down to a unit of GDP, with Mauritania, Honduras, Uruguay, Morocco, and Jamaica being front runners. And this is something which is really interesting because we see a shift from traditional historic markets to developing countries. And we also see that there is a key engagement of developing countries to deploy renewable energy.

Interestingly, when we are looking into the renewable power capacity per capita amongst the top 20 countries, we have Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Spain, and Portugal. And I'm raising this because this really shows that the importance of policy engagement. These are countries which engaged into the renewable energy route since a long time, have set up these policy and regulated frameworks. And this is really reflected by the fact that they are leading.

When we're looking into the heat sectors, solar watt heating collector capacity, China, the US, Germany, Turkey, and Brazil are forerunner. Per capita, it's, again, Austria, Cyprus, Israel, Barbados, and Greece.

I mentioned the cursorial of policy. So today, almost all countries have either renewable energy targets and/or renewable energy support policies. What we clearly see-- and you have the blue bars are the power policies, the orange ones are heating and cooling, and the green ones is transfer. So we clearly see that there is a focus of policymakers on the power sector.

And what we also see in the power sector is that with the evolve or the development of the markets, we also see a shift of type of policies. Historically, we have lots of hidden tariffs. And now we see that countries with the majority of the markets cascading down are growing more and more into tendering auction systems.

So you can see that we have 114 countries with power policies, 66 countries with transfer, and only 21 countries with heating and cooling policies. Here, when we are talking about heating and cooling, we are looking at the technology-neutral obligations and solar obligations. So there is a lot of space for improvement. That's clearly a lesson of 2016.

Coming to the power sector, renewables accounted for 28.9% of global power generation capacity, and 23.7% of the global electricity demand. They made up 60% of net additions-- sorry, something moved here-- to global power capacity. And the total renewable energy power capacity was 1,849 gigawatt, which is an increase of over 9% or-- sorry, increase of almost 9% compared to 2014. We clearly see that hydropower plays a big role. But the other leaders are wind, bio power, solar PV.

When we are looking at the heating and cooling sector-- and just the fact that I'm not able to show you, say, similar slides in the heating and cooling sector, as we have in the power sector here, shows already that we have another challenge in the heating and cooling sector. Its much more dispersed information. And its more challenging to really assess the installed capacities, as well as the heat and the production, the energy production of these sectors.

However, energy use for heat accounts for about half of the total world final energy consumption, as you probably all know. And the renewable energy share represents around 8%. When you see basically the slide here, I mentioned that 20 countries or 21 countries with heating and cooling policies, we really see that many countries could and should engage in setting up these frameworks.

In the transfer sector, the situation is a little more positive when we look at the policy sector, policy frameworks. However, renewable energy accounted for an estimated 4% of global energy demand for road transport in 2013, which is up from 2% in 2007. But, again, space for improvement, too.

What we clearly also see is the development, the very dynamic developments in the power sector, have an influence on development in the heating and cooling and the transport sector. We see that there is cost pressure on heating and cooling technologies, that there is, to a certain extent, an electrification trend which is taking place. And it is certainly important that the solar thermal sector, for instance, also really underline the importance for also having thermal solutions in these sectors. Because it's really key to reach 100% renewable energy.

I will very quickly, without going too much into detail, go through some developments in the different technologies. I will not cover all of these. Please visit our website, the Global Stats Report Website to see more.

So solar PV is clearly a leader in the renewable energy technologies in 2015, with capacity added of 50 gigawatt reaching at 220 gigawatt of installed capacities. What is really important, and you see it at the curve, basically, it's very dynamic. And annual PV market in 2015 was nearly 10 times the world cumulative solar PV capacity of a decade earlier. So this is, really, very significant.

In the wind power sector, 63 gigawatts of capacity has been added, reaching 433 gigawatts. In some countries, we also see that there is a trend in the offshore wind, with an estimated 3.4 gigawatt of grid connected-- of off-grid wind added in 2015.

What is interesting here is, there is always this discussion of integration of variable and renewables into the grids. And there are these countries, like Denmark and Germany, Portugal, Uruguay, reaching really high shares of wind power in their grid, up to 70%. And this is just-- yeah. Success stories, which also need to be out there. It is possible to have such a transition.

Looking at concentrating solar thermal power, there was a total capacity of 4.8 gigawatts in 2015, with 0.4 gigawatts added, which is an increase of 10%. What we see here, however-- and this is, to a certain extent, also linked to the developments in PV and wind is that the rate, the increase, is going down somewhat compared to a couple of years earlier.

And the other aspect we see is that markets continue to shift to developing countries, too. So I will not go into solar, thermal, heating, and cooling because you will have a great presentation of Werner and Barbel, with whom we're also collaborating, basically, on the solar panel section. So Barbel Epp is the author of that section. And IA INTAC, under the IA Solar Heating and Cooling program is providing a lot of data because they really have that continuous historic data on solar capacities, et cetera, in their report.

So we're collaborating here. However, just to tell you, solar power, heating, and cooling has a space in the global status report. And our message clearly is also not to only look at the power sector, but also in these sectors.

All these developments obviously also are reflected in the development of global investment in renewable energy, which was of $286 billion US dollar in 2015, which is a new record high. It's an increase of 5% compared to 2014. And when we include hydropower, then large hydropower, it even reaches $328.9 billion US dollars.

What is interesting-- and you'll have it when you look at the yellow bar-- this is developed countries. The grayest bars are China, India, and Brazil. And the other developing countries up here. And for the first time, investment in renewable energy in developing countries exceeded investment in developed countries.

And this is-- I mean, this is a big, big method. There are markets out there, there is an interest. Today it's an economic solution. And renewable energy also plays a very important role when we are talking about meeting the Universal Energy Act, so the sustainable development goals and objectives.

When we are looking-- sorry. Just to be more precise in developing in emerging country, the increase was of 19%, compared to 2014. And in developed countries, there was a decrease of 8%. So another aspect underlining the shift.

When we are looking now into the different renewable energy sectors, we see that solar power was going up significantly, plus 12%. This is a change relative to 2014. Wind was plus 4%. All the other renewable energy technologies went down. So solar power was the leader in receiving 56%, actually, of total new investment in renewables.

Especially, when we are also talking to policymakers jobs in renewable energy is obviously another argument to also go in these sectors. And we we're interested in this. The global employment in renewables increased by 5% in 2015 and reached an estimated 8.1 million direct and indirect jobs in the renewable energy industry.

The leading employers were China, Brazil, the US, and India. And when it comes to technologies, we see the solar energy sector, but also the bioenergy sector as leaders.

We have this feature on community renewable energy. And you see that we-- so, first, community renewable energy is really a big, big trend over the last years. We see that the initiatives are increasing a lot, in particular in Europe. But it's also a trend which takes place in other regions. I mean, there is a lot of community energy ongoing in Africa, in Asia, in the US, and Latin America.

So in Europe, there is more than 2,800 energy cooperatives. In Germany, 772. And I think if I recall correctly, it's up from 200, 5 years ago. The Netherlands, 500. And this is also something which is pushed a lot by the 100% Renewable Energy Movement, but also the Energy Autonomy discussion, where you can also find the whole discussion of having energy storage in the houses, et cetera.

What is interesting is, very often, we talk about power here, but we see that there is lots of things ongoing on district heating, too. And good examples, for instance, coming from Denmark on having community renewable heat.

So very quickly in mentioning, I said that we have a section on energy efficiency. We see here, when we are looking at the policy map, that there is an increased emphasis on activities to improve energy efficiency in all sectors. And there is also policy support. There are 146 countries with policies, and 128 countries with targets. So I invite you to go to the section to read more about it. Clearly, energy efficiency needs to be built into a more integrated approach.

So all these developments led to a share of renewable energy in the global final energy consumption of 19.2%. This is 2014 data. And what we also see is that the share of modern renewable increased to 10.3%. So this is really relevant for the use of traditional biomass in developing countries, mainly.

So I'm coming to my closing slides. So what are the conclusions? Renewable energy, the largest global capacity additions come from renewables to date. This is really a great message. It's a great method, but more is possible, I think. For the second year in the row-- and this is obviously very important-- global carbon emissions associated with energy consumption remain stable, while the global economy grew. So we really have a decoupling of growth and carbon emissions, which is linked to renewable energy and energy efficiency deployments.

A big message is, the majority of the fossil fuel reserves need to be kept in the ground in order to reach the two-degree Celsius climate target. And this is really important. It's in particular important when we think about the fact that for every dollar of subsidies to renewables, $4 are spent. So it's really a considerable method.

And very clearly, more emphasis needs to take place on renewable energy in heating and cooling, as well as transport sectors. And also on sector coupling. We really see the need for an integrated approach at the local level, at the national level, at the regional level.

We need to build smarter and more flexible systems to also accommodate both centralized, as well as decentralized generation. This is really true for countries which already have very good grid infrastructures, for instance. In the developing countries, we really have a great opportunity to develop infrastructures, which already accommodate for integrating renewable energies.

And so here we have some other activities. You can go on our website. And if you would like to be involved in the Global Status Report 2017, just click on that link and be in touch with us. Thank you very much.

NIGEL COTTON: Thank you, Rana. So I noticed we have a couple of questions that we can probably just take now. One is from Jonathan K saying, why is your opinion-- in your opinion, governments focusing on electrical power so heavily, when 70%, 80% of all energy needs are HVAC, which can be replaced by thermal? Question mark. I don't know if you have a comment on--

RANA ADIB: To be honest, I think there are different reasons for it. One is certainly that lots of the power sectors, I guess, renewable power sectors are more centralized, and more streamlined technologies, too. When we're looking at the heating and cooling sector, when you're talking about buyer entities, solar therma, et cetera, it's very often more decentralized solutions which take place at the local level more, where you also have local players in the market.

And there is a bigger need, I guess, to coordinate, consolidate data, for instance, so we have bigger challenges in these sectors to have good consolidated data information. This also means that there is another power, I guess, to lobby for better policy and regulated frameworks. This is certainly one aspect.

And this also calls for, I guess, inter-ministerial collaboration. So let's take the example, when you're looking at the local level building, it just means that you have different sectors that need to work together, develop the same languages. It's cross-sectoral approaches which are needed. And this is often more complicated. And so I think that this is really contributing a lot to the fact that there is a focus on the power sector.

The other part is, really, that the cost went down so significantly during the last couple of years, so that basically there is a cost pressure, too, on the heating and cooling sectors.

NIGEL COTTON: OK. So for purposes of time, we need to swap to the next speaker, which is Werner Weiss. I'll just put his slides through.

WERNER WEISS: OK. Thank you very much, Nigel, for your introduction. I'm going to present a study AEE, INTEC. annually for the IA Solar Heating and Cooling program. And the co-authors of this study are Franz Mauthner and Monika Spork-Dur.

So, basically, what I presents are the results of the 2016 edition. Of course, the full story can be downloaded from the AEE's Solar Heating and Cooling website. They get significantly more information and data than I can present now.

We're starting with an overview and comparison with other renewable energy technologies. it brings me back a little bit to the first question we had, why is the policy mainly focusing on the power sector? If you have electricity or if you have energy discussions, usually the energy discussions are mainly electricity discussions. And therefore, they simply forget that about 50% of the final energy demand world-wide is heat.

And it's also represented here. If you look on the total installed capacity, by the end of 2015, then we have 435 gigawatt installed capacity on solar thermal. Photovoltaic represents 227 gigawatt install capacity. And solar thermal power, concentrating solar power is 5 gigawatt installed capacity. On the [INAUDIBLE] there it is completely vise versa. So people are just focusing on photovoltaic and believing its much more installed than solar thermal.

This is comparing the figures, which were given by Rana before. She mentioned, if I recall it right, picowatt new installed capacity in 2015, and so in thermal in 2014, it was 46 gigawatt new installed capacity. So its in the same range. But it was really underestimated and simply not seen.

Focusing on the total installed capacity in the operations, so its accumulated installed capacity worldwide by the end of 2014, it's what you see on the screen. You can see that the really dominating market is China, representing 70% of the total world market. About 11.6% is in Europe, and the rest of the world is less than 18%. Something of 4.4% in North America, 2.6% in Asia without China, 2.4% in Latin America, and so forth. So really dominated by China.

And if we look a little bit back in history, just to 2012, it changes. Then you can see in 2012 it was 67% in China and it was nearly 16% in Europe so that means China is really taking more and more of the share of solar thermal install capacity.

If we look to the total installed capacity of unglazed and glazed water collectors in operation. So the 10 leading countries by the end of 2014. China is leading, it has an install capacity of 289 collectors. And the different markets you would have in these different countries. So China has clearly dominated by evacuated tube collectors, even if you can't see it clearly on this slide. On the top of the flat plate collectors, it goes really up to the second floor, if you have one here.

The US market is dominated the unglazed plastic collectors mainly because we import heating. So these are the blue parts of what you can see here in the US. And the small part of flat plate collectors. Germany, mainly flat plate collectors, about 10% evacuated tube collectors. And then, you have in Turkey, again, the same way like in Germany, Brazil, and so forth. So they are mixed flat plate and evacuated tube collectors.

But this shows also different applications, especially in the US. But the main market is on pool heating. And it's also a significant share in Brazil and in Australia.

If you look to the top 10 related to the per 1,000 inhabitants, which shows you more on the market penetration, you can see-- Rana mentioned it already-- Austria is leading here ahead of Cyprus, Israel, Barbados, Greece, the Palestinian territories, Australia and China. In terms of installed capacity per 1,000 inhabitants, it's number eight. So in absolute terms, it's leading. In terms of installed capacity per inhabitant, it's number eight worldwide.

What I should mention here maybe in this slide is, this these top 10 countries are not leading because they're all coming from a region where it unavaliable most of these countries have a long term support scheme. European countries, like Australia, their subsidy scheme in place for quite a long time. Israel was one of the countries who had already introduced already in 1980 a obligation. And so for us, I don't want to go into detail here. But many of these countries are top 10 because they have long term policy in place what I might mention here, this year, Turkey overtook Germany in the top 10 from number 10 to number 9.

Distribution of the total installed capacity by collector type. So China is leading on the worldwide scale flat plate tube collectors more than 70% on the worldwide scale. And just 22% of flat plate collectors. If you focus on Europe, you have the opposite picture. Flat plate collectors are dominating with nearly 84%, and the vacated tube collectors, it's about 11% of the market in Europe. So this really, really different worldwide or if you focus on Europe.

Distribution by collector type in different economic regions. If you start on the left hand side, as I mentioned already, in the US and Canada, the unglazed pool collector is dominating. If you look on Australia and New Zealand, still nearly 60% is pool heating, about 40% of flat plate collectors. Sub-Saharan Africa, its 53% is unglazed water collector. 37% is flat plate collector, 10% evacuated tubes.

If you look on Europe, it's dominated by 85% of flat plate collectors and about 11% of evacuated tubes. On the worldwide scale, of course, due to the dominance of China, again, 71% is evacuated tube collectors.

The distribution by type of system. Again, I want to start at the worldwide scale it's 78% of the installed capacity on thermosyphon systems, so non-pump systems and pump systems on the worldwide scale is just 22%. If you look to North America, if you look to Europe, then you have a different picture. In Europe, you have 61% pump system and 39% are thermosyphon systems.

And here, I have to mention that in Europe, the countries and also Turkey, with geographical point of view to Europe. Therefore, it's nearly 40% of thermosyphon systems, and here 61% are pump systems. In the US, Canada, and North America it's 97% of the systems are pumped system. So we have completely different markets in different regions worldwide.

Distribution by application. I don't want to go too much in detail here, but we get more and more different pictures. So different implications. On the worldwide scale, it's still 63% is domestic hot water systems for single family houses. Then you have this red part, with 28%, it's large scale domestic hot water systems for multiple family houses, but also for the tourism sector and public sector hotels, hospitals. So medium scale systems.

Then you have other. It's this small yellow part. But this is significantly growing. Solar district heating and solar process heat. And 6% is on swimming pool heating. And then, of course, it's different in the different regions worldwide, which you can see here on these slides.

The bad news is now-- it was mentioned already also by Rana-- compared to the year 2013, the new collector install worldwide decreased by 15%. And this is really-- this indicates a trend change. Up to now, we've only said growing markets. And in 2014, this was the first time we have a decreased worldwide market.

And this also seems to be a trend. The data we know already from 2015-- and this is in the main markets worldwide. This trend seems to continue, unfortunately.

So this is just showing the market growth from 2000. So we had between 4% was the highest market growth in 2008. 2013 was 2%. And this year-- sorry for this. It's minus 15% in 2014.

In detail, the market growth compared to 2013, you can see we had growth rates of 8% in Latin America. We had growth rates in Asia without China. We had significantly drops in the market in Australia, and especially minus 18% in China. This was a major drop, taking into account that they are dominating the world market, which results in a worldwide decrease of minus 15%.

Focusing now on just the installed capacity in 2014, so it's a capacity which was installed in this year. Again, in total terms, China was leading with 36 gigawatt installed capacity, followed by Turkey, Brazil, India, the US, and so forth. So, again, dominance of China. And I mentioned already, here was a change in Germany fell back. And the newcomers in the top 10 is Mexico and Greece in 2014. And if I compare it to the year 2010, just looking just four years back, then we have already a significant change.

It means in 2010 we have four European countries under the top 10. And if we look to 2014, there's just Germany left on the top 10 from Europe. So it's a clear trend going to new markets who are dominating the world market. It's not any more major, the industrialized countries. So other countries are coming in and investing heavily in this technology.

Again, installed. 2014 by 1,000 inhabitants. You see a different picture. Of course, again, then you have Israel is still number one. China is in second place, followed by the Palestinian territories. Denmark. So it's the large scale systems, district heating, they are now number 4. Followed by Australia, Greece, Turkey, Austria, Cyprus. And new under the top 10 is Switzerland in terms of installed capacity by 1,000 inhabitants.

There's been a very positive development in large scale district heating and cooling applications in Europe, but also in other parts of the world. But this slide basically shows the development in Europe on large scale systems. In total, how large scale district heating systems, we have installed about 1.1 million square meters. And there's a very positive trend, as I mentioned already. It's been about 20 new systems installed per year.

If you look where they are installed, they are mainly installed in Denmark. In Denmark, there are nearly 79 systems installed to the total capacity of 577 megawatt. And if you compare it to Germany, Austria, or Sweden-- so number two, three, and four-- you can see that the average size of the system in Denmark is significantly higher. In Denmark, the average size per system is about seven megawatt, which relates to about 10,000 square meter per system.

And in Germany, Austria, and Sweden, the average size of this district heating, solar-assisted district heating systems, within the range of one megawatt per 1,500 square meters. So there's a significant difference between Denmark and the rest of Europe, if you want.

Just to give you one picture. One of the biggest systems at the moment is Vojens this district heating plant in Denmark. In the meantime, it's even bigger. It's about 70,000 square meters. And in the middle of the picture, on the left hand side, you'll see that huge seasonal storage is 203,000 cubic meter of seasonal heat storage.

There is a big discussion in Austria at the moment to install in the next three years a very big system with about 450,000 square meters and a 1.8 million cubic meter peak storage. But this is under discussion, but it looks quite optimistic that this system will be built in the next years. So a very positive trend in large scale district heating systems.

Looking on solar cooling systems, here, we've we lost a little bit. The dynamic is still going up, but still in low scale. The total installed number of systems is in the range of 1,200 worldwide, and about 900 of these systems are installed in Europe.

The global processing applications, it's also a growing market, a large scale market. The total installed capacity, we have documented-- I have to mention these other results of the IA Solar Heating and Cooling Task 49 SHIP Databank worldwide database on solar heating for industrial process application. This is what is shown here.

So in total, it's about 200,000 square meters installed. So significantly smaller than industry heating. And if we start on the left hand side, you'll see the large scale systems bigger than 4.7 megawatt or bigger than 1,000 square meters. Then we have 21 systems installed with a total of 75 megawatts, or about 110,000 square meters. Then you have systems in the range between 500 and 1,000 square meters.

We have 35 systems installed with a total capacity of 16 megawatt and small scale industrial processes applications between 100 and 500 square meters. The biggest number is 86 systems, representing 14 megawatt. And, again, in the range of 20,000 square meters.

Most of these systems either go in the food and beverage industry. So a lot was done, for instance, in the beer brewing, in the brewing industry. But also in the galvanic industry. And the picture you see here is of the biggest system at the moment in industrial processing. It's a copper mine in Chile.

The total installed capacity of 39,000 square meters representing 26 megawatt in the Atacama desert. And the heat is used here for processed heat, so for the rose seed copper winning process of the copper mine.

Very quickly the number of jobs. So in total, worldwide, we have something like 730,000 jobs worldwide in solar and thermal. The turnover worldwide is estimated at about $21 billion euro or $24 billion US dollar. So it's really significant turnover done by the solar thermal industry.

Finally, what we published first time in our study, solar thermal system cost and levelised cost of heat or solar-generated heat, because this was always a big discussion, are going to present now-- we focused on four types of systems. The wandering of the levelised cost of thermosyphon systems, pump systems, or small scale systems so for domestic hot water systems for single family houses, then pump systems for multiple family houses or for large systems. And, finally, complex systems for hot water and space heating. These are the next four slides.

What you can see here on the slide on the bottom, you see the different system or several systems we compared from Australia, Brazil, China, India, Israel, South Africa, and Turkey. And the left y-axis, you see the specific system cost in Euro per square meter of cross collector area. So this includes the total system cost, including installation. This is shown here on the left y-axis. And on the right y-axis, you see the localized cost of heat in euros and per kilowatt hour.

What you can see here-- these diamonds-- they show you the levelised cost of heat from thermosyphon systems. For domestic hot water systems in Turkey, they have the lowest levelised costs. So for a four-square meter system with a 170 liter storage tank. And even if they were just tourists lifetime of 10 years, they reached levelised cost of heat in the range of 3 euro cent per kilowatt hour.

You go to South Africa, a similar system. So the levelised cost of heat are significantly higher, in the range of more than 8 euro cent per kilowatt hour. This is, of course, due to the fact that the system cost is significantly higher in South Africa than compared to Turkey.

If you go to Australia, they have significantly higher cost system. Higher system lifetimes for thermosyphon system. So we'll be taking to consideration here, also the knowledge we have of the average system lifetime. And this is, of course, a significant role in that end of levelised cost of heat.

Jumping now to the specific investment cost and levelised cost of solar heat for small pump systems, so these systems are in the range of four to six square meter collector area in combination with a 200 to 300 liter storage tank. And, again, we compare here a range of different systems per country. And the cost of levelised-- the specific cost euro per square meter, and the range between 250 euro per square meter and can go up, like in China here, to 600. And in the worst case, we are like in France, we are in the range of nearly 1,400 euro per square meter.

Concerning levelised cost of heat, you can see this system in China. We have something like 8 euro cent per kilowatt hour. And we can reach the same with the Australians system. It's also in the range of 8 euro cent per kilowatt hour. And the most expensive systems in France, with the average specific cost of the system of 1,400 euro per square meter ends up, of course, at nearly 20 euro cent per kilowatt hour.

But nevertheless, even the French system is still in the range of electricity cost if you would repair hot water with electricity. It's in the same range like the electricity. All other countries are significantly below and can compete with gas and, of course, with electricity in all cases.

Now, for large pump systems, more or less the same situation. Depending on the climatic conditions, of course. The cost of the system, the lifetime of the system in the range, between three euro cent per kilowatt hour. And in France, we are in the range of 14 euro cent per kilowatt hour. This shows you, again, brings me back to the question of before, why is the policy focusing mainly on electricity? Is it significantly simpler to work with levelised cost of electricity? Because this is mainly usually the same range worldwide, whereas heat is very-- especially coming from solar thermal, it's significantly depending on the implication.

But nevertheless, in summary, and in the Sun Belt of the rotary, the high solar radiation, behind the range between 3 and 8 euro cent per kilowatt hour. And in central and northern Europe, we're in the range between 8 and 15 euro cent per kilowatt hour. And the combi systems, it's obviously in this range depending on the country. The cheaper systems are in Brazil.

And with this, I want to thank you for your attention. If you want to know a little bit more about this study, just download it from the IA Solar Heating and Cooling Website. Thank you for your attention.

NIGEL COTTON: Thank you, Werner. Excellent presentation I have a couple of questions for clarification. One is from Jonathan Kay. What variables are included in the highest cost of heat?

WERNER WEISS: The variables are-- on the one hand it's-- so we have a definition. So that you can see it, I'll just go back one slide. On the one hand, we have this-- the system is defined. So we have some reference systems. We have the service lifetime. It is variable, it's the climatic condition, and it's the cost. And, of course, it's the financing cost, so the interest rate. But you'll find all the variables in detail in the study. You'll find all the variables for each of the countries.

NIGEL COTTON: OK. Great. And the other one was did your presentation include the project Glass Point in Oman?

WERNER WEISS: No. It's not including concentrating systems. The Glass Point system is a parabolic trough collector. So we're thinking about to include the heat implications from concentrating systems, so for an evacuated parabolic trough or funnel in the next edition next year. But this is not included up to now.

NIGEL COTTON: OK. Great. There's just one clarification point here. You're using the indicator per 1,000 inhabitants. What is that actually telling the audience because certain countries will have quite a heavy heat load and others maybe not?

WERNER WEISS: Yeah. But in general, if you show the installed capacity per 1,000 inhabitants, it shows-- it gives you an indicator on the market penetration. So what is installed per capita. This is the main reason why we show it, because otherwise, maybe it's also the background-- I'm coming from Austria. We are representing eight million. And if you compare it to China, which is 1.4 billion people, of course they always install more, even if they have a significantly lower market penetration.

And, of course, it's not focusing on the different heat loads. If you keep in mind that most of the installations of solar heat at the moment, for all the preparation, this makes not a significant difference between the demand in a hot climate or a cold climate. So it's not a significant difference. But it's mainly showing the market penetration, when we show it per capita.

NIGEL COTTON: Excellent. Thank you very much for that. It's now time to move on to our next speaker, so I will change the slides. And that is Barbel Epp, from the solar thermal world.org

I need to unmute Barbel. Excellent. Barbel, please continue.

Barbel EPP: Yes. Good afternoon, everybody. I go back to my starting point. Excellent. Good afternoon. Thank you, Nigel, for the nice introduction. My topic today is solar heating and cooling trends in policy and industry.

One of the key issues of the GSR 2015 is describing the market development most currently, that means year 2015, on global and national level. Generally speaking, the markets were under pressure in 2015. And this is the key chart showing the market development 2015 in newly added capacities. In total, these 18 countries declined by 14%, which is the same trend like Rana already explained for 2014.

I want to give some reasons. China is down by 17% again, so it's a big collapse. And this is due to the overheated construction market. The real estate market dropped in China from double-digit annual growth rates at the beginning of 2014 to stagnation in December 2015. So a steep decline. The second reason is that the focus of the government towards renewable electricity sort of puts-- there's not much room for solar heating support measures at the moment.

European markets are also in general down. They were hit by the low oil and gas prices. Additional challenges we're seeing in Spain, Italy, France because of bureaucratic processes associated with the national subsidies issues. We have generally low construction activities in several countries. And an increasing competition from other renewable heating technologies in the residential sector, mainly.

Brazil also not performing too well in 2015, whereas it was a booming market before, which is due to the national economic crisis in the country. And also the delay in the social housing program, which was a big driver in the past because of a lot of apartments are equipped with solar water heaters.

India's industry stagnated in 2015 also, after several years of growth, which is still a consolidation faith after the government stopped the incentives in August 2014, sorry. Government and industry are currently discussing new support strategies. And there's one interesting instrument to be discussed, which is [audio on video cuts out] because they have a very renewable purchase application in the electricity sector. So there is a draft of a law at the ministry and it's discussed currently.

Despite these negative trends in some countries, there were extremely well performing countries. We heard of Denmark 55% up, again, in 2015 due to the high demand of large scale solar district heating. Israel climbed up again 9%, which was actually cost by a strong hailstorm in 2015. Israel is a strong replacement market. And the hailstorm ruined so many glasses that there was a large replacement extra load in 2015. Turkey also up by 10%. At industry profits by its strong supply chain, 800 sales points points and around 3,000 specialized installers do a good job in promoting solar.

While we heard from Rana that adaption of solar heating and cooling policies is much slower than electricity fields, you've seen this chart. 21 countries worldwide had solar applications in place. None was followed up, and none was ended in 2015. So this is bad news.

This table shows you roughly the number of countries which had policy in place for solar heating and cooling, middle column and renewable electricity, the right column. And you see the big difference that much fewer number of countries have policies in place.

And this is in all categories, whether it's support policy, as well as targets. And these new ENDC targets, which were all submitted during Paris time. We could only identify three countries which have explicit solar heating and cooling targets in the submitted papers.

I would like to mention that these 45 countries are-- with all their precise solar heating and cooling targets are mentioned in the big table, in the solar status report on page 181.

Also, Rana already talked about the big role of municipalities, which is also profiting solar heating and cooling. She was mentioning the 100% campaign, which is followed by more and more countries and cities worldwide.

I would like to mention Amsterdam, which had a far reaching new objective in 2015. They committed themselves to decarbonize its district heating system and set an immediate goal for increasing connections to a total of 230,000 homes within the city by 2040.

Graz was already mentioned by Rana. A huge system of 350 megawatt solar district heating, where the local utility wants to sign a contract with an energy service company soon.

One very important trend we mentioned in the global status report this year is the transition from single family houses to commercial sector. This is evidence from the market figures that have analysts gather every year. You see here, the column on the left shows you the share of applications worldwide within the total installed water capacity, and on the right hand side within the newly installed added capacity, 2014. And you see that the residential sector, which was dominating solar with 64%, is reducing a lot if it comes to added power. And we have a very big shift towards multi-family houses, tourism, and public sector.

Some examples, China is probably the strongest country moving into this direction. If you believe the statistics we received from SunVision, they have already 61% of the newly added collector area in 2015 in this commercial sector multi-family houses, tourism, and public. This mood corresponds with 26 million square meters.

Poland is also a country where this shift is fairly evident. They have strong drivers in large projects in public buildings, hospitals, financed by international funds, and their residential sector is declining a lot because their national subsidy scheme is favoring a lot solar PV at the moment.

Linked to this trend towards commercial is this trend, which says Turnkey system suppliers develop new business models. Why is that? Commercial clients obviously are challenging. They do not want to invest money in activities that are not their core business. And they are not very keen in taking over high financial risk or even operating in maintenance responsibility.

So what happened? The heating and cooling companies more and more become offering energy performance contracting. So they become energy providers and they finance, install, operate, and maintain solar heating and cooling systems.

We have researched a lot in this domain on solarthermalworld.org. In this table, results of many stories that we did. These are all companies which offer solar contracts already, solar heat contracts already. You see they are not really covering only Europe, but they are worldwide. You have them in Chile, in Austria, India, Spain, France. So it's fairly mixed. And it's a growing number of companies, actually.

The links in this chart are linked to publications on solar panel growth. We have also a number of start ups which we're not really able to quantify yet in terms of installations, but which all announced to also get into this direction of ESCO. They are, again, in very different countries. We have even companies in Armenia, and, again, United States.

I think we have sort of trends towards closing this gap in offering professional turnkey financed systems to the industry to commercial clients. But what is the big step now is the financing. That means, while having funds, bankers, investment funds, which are specialized about this technology, which are open to finance it, to guarantee solar yields, and to facilitate this new emerging industry. This is really a big gap we are seeing there. And it needs big efforts to close that.

There is a new era of investment in solar process heat. Generally, solar process heat is, for the moment, only a fraction of the residential sector. Whereas the long term potential is seen as large as residential. So these are figures from the technology roadmap stressing that 8.9 exajules could be covered by solar by 2050 in the residential sector and 7.2 in the industrial segment. So they are almost equal, but process heat is very much behind.

So we have this 188 process heat identified project within the database ship-plants.info. And the reasons are manifold. You have the cheap oil and gas prices, you have still high system costs, often absence of guidelines, lack of business models, and lack of knowledge among potential customers.

But even so, you have an amazing situation that in some niche markets, as Rana already said, there is a high demand because solar can compete against gas and oil prices in this segment. This is mostly applications far away from gas grids, where fossils have to be transported to.

And somebody already asked for this Glass Point project. It's this one. It's a Gigawatt investment, which is a pure commercial project without subsidies by the Petroleum Development Oman. They ordered a $600 million US dollar investment, which will become a one 1 gigawatt steam producing plant in 2017. And the technology is seen here. It's parabolic collectors. Parabolic trap connectors. Light ones from aluminum. And they are put in glass houses to defend them against the sand and storms.

And this will cover this 1 gigawatt, which will be the biggest ever done on steam and even CSP, which is a British company called Glass Point to do the installation.

There is one other trend which is [video audio cuts out].

NIGEL COTTON: --one was aimed at Werner. Let me just unmute now. Are there key sectors for the industrial process heating identified in your study? And if so, which ones and why?

WERNER WEISS: The key sectors are the food and beverage industry because usually, of course, the industry is looking on very short pay big times. And you have to look on industries which are most probably not moving in a short time. So it's one of the reasons why a lot of breweries, for instance, installed solar thermal systems because they stay where they are. People will drink beer in the region in the next 100 years.

If you go-- there's another big potential in the textile industry. The textile industry is much more risky, so you never know if textile industry from Europe, for instance, disappears within the next two years to Asia. The main focus where you see the biggest potential is in the food and beverage industry.

But also, as you could see, in the mining sector, where you need a lot of low temperature heat, like in the copper mining industry, where the temperature range is in the range between 50 and 60 degrees centigrade. Which is, excellent, of course for solar thermal applications

on the other hand, we have now just started a new project. It's a cooperation between Germany and Austria with the car manufacturing industry. There is also a big financial theme. Also in the galvanic industry. So everywhere where you have low temperature heat demand, so that means up to 100 degrees. But if you go to concentrating systems, up to 250 degrees.

NIGEL COTTON: Thank you for that. We had a quick question from Nicholas to Rana. The 12% ...

OK. We've come to the end of our allotted time. And we've experience some technical difficulties, which I apologize profusely. And so I will take the opportunity to close the webinar. Thank you for attending today's webinar-seminar. We will, within 48 hours, have this presentation available on our web site solarthermalworld.org.

And on behalf of the guest speakers, Rana, Barbel, Werner, and myself, I would like to thank you for attending. I am Nigel Cotton. I hope this has been helpful. Thank you for your time, and have a great day.

RANA ADIB: Thank you very much.

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