Lesson 11: Technical Analysis - Hidden

Overview

Thus far, we have addressed the fundamental factors that influence energy prices. And we established that there are two main groups that trade in the financial energy commodities markets, commercial and, non-commercial. The latter group represents the “pure” Traders or “speculators." These participants are only interested in price movement. The type of commodity does not matter to them. In order to make trading decisions, they use Technical Analysis as opposed to Fundamental Analysis.

Technical Analysis involves the use of charts to track price movement, establish the current market trend, and to determine the probability of prices moving in one direction or another. Simply put, technical or “day” Traders are interested in market activity as illustrated by the resulting prices.

Since the prices that occur in the market are the result of human decision-making, Technical Analysis really examines the behavior of market participants. As such, patterns emerge that have a high probability of recurring. It is precisely these events that technical Traders are looking for. But, make no mistake; fundamental events cause Traders to react emotionally the results of which are also reflected in the price action.

In Technical Analysis, Traders must first establish what the current price trend is, up or down. Then, they must determine the probability of the trend lasting or changing direction. It is this information that guides their buy/sell decisions.

Learning Outcomes

At the successful completion of this lesson, students should be able to:

• Distinguish the difference between Technical and Fundamental market analysis
• Identify different types of technical charts and their uses
• Recognize Trendlines and market signals
• Analyze “momentum” indicators

What is due for Lesson 11?

This lesson will take us one week to complete. There are a number of required activities in this module. The chart below provides an overview of the activities for Lesson 11. For assignment details, refer to the location noted.

All assignments will be due Sunday, 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time.

Questions?

If you have any questions, please post them to our Questions? discussion forum (not e-mail), located under the Communicate tab in ANGEL. The TA and I will check that discussion forum daily to respond. While you are there, feel free to post your own responses if you, too, are able to help out a classmate.