12.2 The Final Project

12.2 The Final Project

The final project will test your ability to make an observation of the atmosphere and to provide an integrated analysis of that observation using the knowledge and quantitative analysis skills that you have learned in this course.

Procedure to Complete Final Project - Resident Meteo 300 only - Observation Option

1. Choose an observation of the atmosphere. The observation could be a picture, video, radar image, satellite image, or figure. It can come from you, the course material, a site that allows copying, or a family member or friend. Do not use an observation that has been previously analyzed by anyone else. When you are choosing an observation, think about the story you want to tell and how well you think you can tell it. You will want to do a little research and maybe think about two or three different possibilities before you settle on one. Try to think of observations that are unique and interesting.
2. Check to make sure that your observation is at a time and place for which you can get weather information (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, pressure, weather maps, weather station model, upper air data) that you will need to analyze and explain your observation.
3. Before you start the analysis and writing, put your idea for your final project in the Final Project Ideas drop box. I will look at your idea and let you know if I think it is not too big and not too small but just right. You can submit the observation itself at this time but that is not necessary.
4. Gather the evidence as you build your analysis of the observation. Be sure to document where your evidence came from.
5. First show and describe the observation. You should give as much information as you have about the observation—what, where, and when it was observed.
6. Then make a 5-minute PowerPoint presentation of your observation and your analysis. The length could be as short as a few slides, including figures, graphs, and equations, but it must be thorough and complete. I suggest that you use anywhere from three to about six slides, depending on the number of figures you need to describe your analysis. Put in another slide with your references to websites, books, and papers on it. You do not have to do a quantitative analysis, necessarily, but if you do, your analysis will be more impressive and convincing.
7. Be thorough but concise.
8. After you have completed your final project, go back through it and edit it. Make it as polished and appealing as possible.
9. Follow the instructions below for submitting it in Canvas. Late presentations will have points deducted.
   1. Put your final project in either PowerPoint or PDF format.
   2. Embed pictures and equations in the text.
   3. Name your file "Final_Project_YourLastName".
   4. Submit it to the Final Project assignment which is located in the Lesson 12 Module in Canvas. 
10. Presentations will run for two weeks. I will select the order of the presentations using random numbers, so you will need to attend all the classes. I will also take role during each class and will deduct participation points for students who do not have a valid excuse approved by me to miss class. It is only fair to the students who are presenting near the end that the audience is as big for the last presentation as it is for the first.

Procedure to Complete Final Project - Resident Meteo 300 only - Our Changing Atmosphere Option

Because the atmosphere is changing at an unprecedented rate, it is fitting to have an alternative final project have an overall theme of “Our Changing Atmosphere.” Within this broad theme, there are many topics you can focus on, such as one of many aspects of anthropogenic climate change: forest fires, flooding, declines in ice (including snow cover, sea ice, and glacier), storm track changes, increases in extreme precipitation, changes in humidity, changes in hydrology (soil moisture, groundwater, and the flow of rivers), drought, and sea-level rise. Or you could focus on how anthropogenic climate change is influencing ecosystems, agriculture, or human health. Of course, there are many other ways the atmosphere is changing, many for the better, such as improvements in air quality and the recovery of the ozone layer. You could pick a particular place and/or a particular chemical species and report on changes. The atmosphere is also changing as a result of the way land is used, with the urban heat island being one of many relevant phenomena in this category. You might also focus on policy and technology aspects of atmospheric change, such as climate treaties and agreements, air quality regulations, geoengineering, carbon capture and sequestration, reforestation, and renewable energy systems. You could look at what different political parties in the U.S. and elsewhere have proposed to address our changing atmosphere. There are many possibilities, so pick a topic that you have been wanting to learn something about and that you can connect to course material. My suggestion - check out the newest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report for inspiration.

1. For your topic, choose some aspect of the changing atmosphere. Many ideas are given above. Try to be as specific and as up-to-date as possible. The atmosphere is changing rapidly and new studies are continuously being reported on these changes. When you are choosing a topic, think about the story you want to tell and how well you think you can tell it. You will want to do a little research and maybe think about two or three different possibilities before you settle on one. Try to think of topics that are unique and interesting.
2. Check to make sure that there is sufficient information available on your topic. You will want to have multiple sources of information on your topic so that you can present as complete a picture as possible.
3. Before you start the analysis and writing, put your idea for your final project in the Final Project Ideas drop box. I will look at your idea and let you know if I think it is not too big and not too small but just right.
4. Gather information about your topic and be sure to document your sources of information. Scientific trade journals, such as the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society and Eos, the trade journal of the American Geophysical Union, are great sources of information. They are less technical than the normal peer-reviewed journals that scientists publish in, but they are easier to understand while still being rigorous. Scientific American and The New York Times are also excellent sources. There are many web sites that contain useful information about the changing atmosphere, including those hosted by NASA and NOAA. One website, in particular, that I have found useful for making graphs about climate change in just about every part of the world, with particularly good information about the U.S., is NOAA’s Climate at a Glance.
5. Then make a 5-minute PowerPoint presentation about your topic. The length could be as short as a few slides, including figures, graphs, and equations, but it must be thorough and complete. I suggest that you use anywhere from three to about six slides, depending on the number of figures you need to describe your analysis. Put in another slide with your references to websites, books, and papers on it. You do not have to do a quantitative analysis, but if you do, your analysis will be more impressive and convincing.
6. Be thorough but concise.
7. After you have completed your final project, go back through it and edit it. Make it as polished and appealing as possible. The rubric below explains how your project will be graded.
8.  Follow these instructions for submitting it in Canvas:
   • Put your final project in either PowerPoint or PDF format.
   • Embed pictures and equations in the text.
   • Name your file "Final_Project_YourLastName".
   • Submit it to the Final Project assignment which is located in the Lesson 12 Module in Canvas.
   • Late presentations will have points deducted.
9. Presentations will run for two weeks. I will select the order of the presentations using random numbers, so you will need to attend all the classes. I will also take role during each class and will deduct participation points for students who do not have a valid excuse approved by me to miss class. It is only fair to the students who are presenting near the end that the audience is as big for the last presentation as it is for the first.

Procedure to Complete Final Project - Online Meteo 300 only - Observation Option

1. Choose an observation of the atmosphere. The observation could be a picture, video, radar image, satellite image, or figure. It can come from you, the course material, a site that allows copying, or a family member or friend. Do not use an observation that has been previously analyzed by anyone else. When you are choosing an observation, think about the story you want to tell and how well you think you can tell it. You will want to do a little research and maybe think about two or three different possibilities before you settle on one.
2. Check to make sure that your observation is at a time and place for which you can get weather information (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, pressure, weather maps, weather station model, upper air data) that you will need to analyze and explain your observation.
3. Before you start the analysis and writing, put your idea for your final project in the Final Project Ideas drop box. I will look at your idea and let you know if I think it is not too big and not too small but just right. You can submit the observation itself at this time but that is not necessary.
4. Gather the evidence as you build your analysis of the observation. Be sure to document where your evidence came from.
5. First show and describe the observation. You should give as much information as you have about the observation – what, where, and when it was observed.
6. Write your analysis in formal language, such as you might see in a science news magazine and is in the example below. You can submit this analysis as a Word or pdf file. The length could be as short as a few pages, including figures, graphs, and equations, but it must be thorough and complete. 
7. Be thorough but concise.
8. After you have completed your final project, go back through it and edit it. Make it as polished and appealing as possible.
9. Follow the instructions below for submitting it in Canvas. Late presentations will have points deducted.
   1. Put your final project in either Word or PDF format.
   2. Embed pictures and equations in the text.
   3. Name your file "Final_Project_YourLastName".
   4. Submit it to the Final Project assignment which is located in the Lesson 12 Module in Canvas.

Procedure to Complete Final Project - Online Meteo 300 only - Our Changing Atmosphere Option

Because the atmosphere is changing at an unprecedented rate, it is fitting to have an alternative final project have an overall theme of “Our Changing Atmosphere.” Within this broad theme, there are many topics you can focus on, such as one of many aspects of anthropogenic climate change: forest fires, flooding, declines in ice (including snow cover, sea ice, and glacier), storm track changes, increases in extreme precipitation, changes in humidity, changes in hydrology (soil moisture, groundwater, and the flow of rivers), drought, and sea-level rise. Or you could focus on how anthropogenic climate change is influencing ecosystems, agriculture, or human health. Of course, there are many other ways the atmosphere is changing, many for the better, such as improvements in air quality and the recovery of the ozone layer. You could pick a particular place and/or a particular chemical species and report on changes. The atmosphere is also changing as a result of the way land is used, with the urban heat island being one of many relevant phenomena in this category. You might also focus on policy and technology aspects of atmospheric change, such as climate treaties and agreements, air quality regulations, geoengineering, carbon capture and sequestration, reforestation, and renewable energy systems. You could look at what different political parties in the U.S. and elsewhere have proposed to address our changing atmosphere. There are many possibilities, so pick a topic that you have been wanting to learn something about and that you can connect to course material. My suggestion - check out the newest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report for inspiration.

1. For your topic, choose some aspect of the changing atmosphere. Many ideas are given above. Try to be as specific and as up-to-date as possible. The atmosphere is changing rapidly and new studies are continuously being reported on these changes. When you are choosing a topic, think about the story you want to tell and how well you think you can tell it. You will want to do a little research and maybe think about two or three different possibilities before you settle on one. Try to think of topics that are unique and interesting.
2. Check to make sure that there is sufficient information available on your topic. You will want to have multiple sources of information on your topic so that you can present as complete a picture as possible.
3. Before you start the analysis and writing, put your idea for your final project in the Final Project Ideas drop box. I will look at your idea and let you know if I think it is not too big and not too small but just right.
4. Gather information about your topic and be sure to document your sources of information. Scientific trade journals, such as the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society and Eos, the trade journal of the American Geophysical Union, are great sources of information. They are less technical than the normal peer-reviewed journals that scientists publish in, but they are easier to understand while still being rigorous. Scientific American and The New York Times are also excellent sources. There are many web sites that contain useful information about the changing atmosphere, including those hosted by NASA and NOAA. One website, in particular, that I have found useful for making graphs about climate change in just about every part of the world, with particularly good information about the U.S., is NOAA’s Climate at a Glance.
5. Write your analysis in formal language, such as you might see in a science news magazine and is in the example below. You can submit this analysis as a Word or pdf file. The length could be as short as a few pages, including figures, graphs, and equations, but it must be thorough and complete. 
6. Be thorough but concise.
7. After you have completed your final project, go back through it and edit it. Make it as polished and appealing as possible.
8. Follow the instructions below for submitting it in Canvas. Late presentations will have points deducted.
   1. Put your final project in either Word or PDF format.
   2. Embed pictures and equations in the text.
   3. Name your file "Final_Project_YourLastName".
   4. Submit it to the Final Project assignment which is located in the Lesson 12 Module in Canvas.

____________________________________________________________

Example of a Final Project for on-line instruction - other examples of residence instruction Powerpoints are given in Canvas.

Observation

I took this picture of southeastern Pennsylvania while flying to Atlanta, GA on 29 June 2015. The picture was taken at 14:30 EDT (18:30 UTC) from an altitude of about 20 kft. Note the fair weather cumulus clouds have little vertical development. Also, even though it was a fairly moist summer day, the boundary layer below the fair weather cumulus appears quite clear.

Explanation

The presence of clouds indicates that three conditions existed: moisture, aerosol, and cooling. The moisture came from the surface, which had seen heavy rain a day before. Surface heating by solar visible irradiance  evaporated liquid water on the surface, which created pockets of moist, buoyant air. These air parcels rose relative to the nearby less buoyant environment, according to the Buoyancy Equation [2.66]:

$$B=\frac{\left(T_v^{\text{'}}-T_v\right)}{T_v}\mathrm{g }$$

until they reached the lifting condensation level (LCL). There, they became supersaturated, so that the aerosol that forms the cloud condensation nuclei nucleated and cloud drops were formed according to the Koehler Theory Equation [5.13]: $$s_k=S_k-1=\frac{a_K}{r_d}-\frac{Bi{N}_s}{r_d{}^{\mathrm{}}}$$

These clouds sat in the entrainment zone just above the convective boundary layer. The energy budget for such a recently wetted land surface would likely show significant downward net radiation, and significant upward latent heat flux.

The clouds showed little vertical development. This behavior would suggest that the air was quite stable. Indeed, the radiosonde recording (Figure 1) from Dulles Airport a few hours earlier indicated that the air was quite stable, with the ascent on a moist adiabat from the Lifting Condensation Level 5–10 K below the ambient temperature.  

Figure 1. Skew-T from nearby Dulles International Airport on 29 June 2015.

Credit: NWS data, University of Wyoming skew-T website

This condition came about from the synoptic scale conditions, with high pressure over the region (Figure 2) suggesting downward vertical descent and divergence according to Equation [9.5]:

$$\frac{\partial w}{\partial z}= -{\overrightarrow{\nabla }}_H•{\overrightarrow{U}}_H$$

which, by adiabatic compression, would lead to clearing skies.

Figure 2. Surface weather map for 29 June 2015. Note the surface high pressure region over northern Virginia.

Credit: NOAA

It is most likely that these clouds in the observation were formed by adiabatic ascent by random localized buoyant air parcels. However, there was a fairly uniform stratus deck just to the northeast of this location and some evidence that this air mass was moving to the west or southwest toward the location (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Visible satellite image for 29 June 2015. Note the breaking cloud cover in the Northeast and the fair weather cumulus over much of Pennsylvania and Maryland.

Credit: NOAA

As this stratus deck was mixed with drier air (Lesson 5.3, Equation [5.4]), the cloud deck could have broken up into evaporating individual clouds. Likely the clouds in the observation were from both adiabatic ascent and the evaporation of the stratus cloud deck.

Often with clear skies the pollution levels are high and the boundary layer is filled with haze. However, the visibility is quite good in the picture. There is generally enough PM2.5 (particle matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter) present in southeastern Pennsylvania. However, rain the previous day was able to remove some of the pollution from previous days, thus clearing the air. In addition, the particles that were there may not have been swollen to a size that efficiently scatters solar radiation, when in Equation [6.18]:

$$x\equiv \frac{2\pi r}{\lambda }$$

the size of the particles are approximately equal to the visible wavelength. Indeed, we have at least three pieces of evidence that the air was fairly dry (Figure 1, Figure 3, and Figure 4 (Lesson 7)), with dewpoints in the middle-to-high 50s (^oF) (see this image).

Figure 4. Satellite water vapor image for 29 June 2015. Note the tongue of fairly dry air going across western Virginia into Maryland and southeastern Pennsylvania.

Credit: NOAA

From the skew-T, the relative humidity was only about 50% (Lesson 3.5, RH = w/w_s = 7 g/kg / 14 g/kg). Thus, the recent scavenging of aerosol by heavy rain and the low relative humidity made for great visibility and clear boundary layer air even in the high pressure region, with light winds and clearing skies. This example is interesting because only after frontal passages with rain is the boundary layer air so clear under high pressure. If the high pressure were to persist, then the moisture levels would likely increase due to evaporation of surface water and the pollutant emissions and chemistry would make more particle pollution, both of which would lead to lower visibility in the boundary layer.

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Self Evaluation of This Example. Note: This evaluation is given here to show you how the rubic will be used to evaluate your project. You should not include a self-evaluation with your project.

This example meets the overall standards for integration and explanation of the observation. The analysis addresses the presence of the fair weather cumulus and the reason for the clear air in conditions when the visibility is often not so good. On the other hand, my example would not receive a perfect score for a few reasons. First, the choice of observation is good but not very interesting. Second, all of the equations are appropriate, but some are not well integrated into the analysis. Third, some of the figures are fuzzy. And, fourth, the possible evaporation of the stratus deck is not particularly well explained.

For your reference, the grade for this example would likely be 11 to 12 on a scale of 15.