PrintEmissions
The model calculates the carbon emissions as a function of the GDP of the global economy and two adjustable parameters, one of which (carbon intensity) sets the emissions per dollar value of the GDP (units are in gigatons of carbon per trillion dollars of GDP) and something called the Emissions Control Rate (ECR). The equation is simply:
Emissions = carbon intensity*(1 -ECR)*GDP ;
Currently, carbon intensity has a value of about 0.118, and the model assumes that this will decrease as time goes on due to improvements in the efficiency of our economy — we will use less carbon to generate a dollar’s worth of goods and services in the future, reflecting what has happened in the recent past. The ECR can vary from 0 to 1, with 0 reflecting a policy of doing nothing with respect to reducing emissions, and 1 reflecting a policy where we do the maximum possible. Note that when ECR = 1, then the whole Emissions equation above gives a result of 0 — that is, no human emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. In our model, the ECR is initially set to 0.005, but it can be altered as a graphical function of time to represent different policy scenarios. In other words, by changing this graph, we are effectively making a policy — and everyone follows this policy in our model world!