Population Growth vs. Water Needs

Population Growth vs. Water Needs

Do we have excess capacity to supply this water? That is an important question, but you have probably already determined that the real issue is where the population growth occurs and what water resources are available there. The major growth is projected to occur in developing countries (Figure 17). African nations are likely regions for greater than average growth. Interestingly, much of Africa is estimated to have significant groundwater resources (BGS, 2013) that could be developed if necessary. In fact, Nigeria is projected to surpass the population of the U.S. by 2050 (Figures 17-19). One must examine the population density and rate of projected growth vs. water needs. In addition, climate change impacts must be considered.

Figure 17. The distribution of population by country scaled by China (largest red dot) at 1.36 billion people in 2010. (World plot)

Source: Gapminder

Figure 18. Top 10 countries by population from 1950 to 2050, according to UN data.br>
Click link to expand for a text description of Figure 18

1950- total population 2.5 bn

 

1. China- .5 billion
2. India
3. United States
4. Russia
5. Japan
6. Indonesia
7. Germany
8. Brazil
9. Britain
10. Italy

2013- total population 7.2 bn

 

1. China-4 bn
2. India
3. United States
4. Indonesia
5. Brazil
6. Pakistan
7. Nigeria
8. Bangladesh
9. Russia
10. Japan

2050 forecast- total population 9.6 bn

 

1. India-7 bn
2. China
3. Nigeria
4. United States
5. Indonesia
6. Pakistan
7. Brazil
8. Bangladesh
9. Ethiopia
10. Philippines

Source: United Nations

Figure 19. Fertility index (children per woman) by country as a function of per capita income for 2012. Note the higher fertility for African countries. China and the U.S. are well below 2 children per woman.
Click the link to expand for a text description of Figure 19

Chart with GDP/Capita on the X-axis (low to high) and Children per woman (total fertility) on the y-axis for 2012. Different colors and dot sizes are used to represent different countries. The line of best fit would look like a negative exponential function. General trends include high fertility in African countries followed by India, (2-8 children). China, the Americas, and Russia are well below 2 children per woman.

Source: Gapminder