Welcome to Earth in the Future!
Our planet is warming. Data shows that the average temperature of Earth has increased by 0.6oC since 1950. The Northern Hemisphere just recorded its 432nd month with temperatures above the 20th-century average. 2020 was the warmest year on record (tied with 2016). July 2019 was the warmest month ever recorded on Earth with major heatwaves in Europe, India, and North America. In 2019 in Europe, Paris shattered its hottest day record with a temperature of 109 degrees F on July 25th. Airport runways melted, nuclear reactors had to be shut off and an astounding 57% of the ice sheet in Greenland was showing signs of melting. The Midwest of the US was not just hot in 2019, it was wet with major floods over wide areas. Moving to January 2020, Australia was on fire. Millions of acres have burned as a result of extreme heat and a long drought. Hundreds of millions of animals have been lost. In June 2020 the town of Verkhoyansk in Siberia which sits 70o north of the equator hit 38oC, over 100oF! And in August 2020, Death Valley hit 54oC (130oF), possibly the warmest temperature Earth has ever recorded. California experienced its most devastating fire season in 2020 with 4.3 million acres burning and unhealthy smoke filled air polluting major cities like San Francisco. In fact, the whole Earth is warming at a rate not experienced for many millions of years, if ever before. This warming and a myriad of associated environmental changes will challenge modern society throughout the 21st century. Scientists are striving to improve predictions of how the environment will change as well as understand the impacts on humans. This course, Earth in the Future: Predicting Climate Change and Its Impacts Over the Next Century is designed to provide the state of the art of climate science, the impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, as well as ways that humans can mitigate and adapt to climate change.
Video: Carbon Dioxide Pumphandle (2:42) This video is not narrated.
The overwhelming majority of climate scientists attribute this warming directly to human activities, specifically the burning of fossil fuels. The concentration of CO2, the most important greenhouse gas, now stands at 415 parts per million, the highest level in the last 800 thousand years. For context, the level was just 398 ppm when the course opened in 2012! Play the animation above left and watch the movie above right and you'll see the remarkable increase in CO2 over the short and long term. Scientists have not succeeded in making their case to the general population—only about 50% of people in the US believe that warming is a result of human activities. The goal of this course is not to focus on this ongoing debate or to take sides. The goal of this class is to understand the science of climate and consider the implications of climate change on Earth no matter what its causes. How do we forecast the climate? What will Earth be like in the year 2100? How habitable will the planet be at that time? A key factor, completely separate from climate change, is that projections show the global population increasing from about 7 billion people today possibly up to 14 billion at the end of this century. Like climate, the population is very difficult to forecast, hence the range of estimates is very broad. In fact, habitability is a central part of population projections, with lower estimates factoring in significant increases in mortality as a result of overpopulation as well as decreases in fertility.
Let's take a quick look at how the physical nature of the planet has changed over the last fifty or so years. Mountain glaciers have lost over 4000 cubic kilometers of water and the Arctic sea ice has lost 10% of its area. Sea level has risen by 9 cm. That might not sound like a lot but it sure made a difference to flooding during Hurricane Sandy! The ocean surface temperature has increased by 0.5oC and its pH has decreased (it has become more acidic), making it more hostile for many invertebrate animals that make shells out of calcium carbonate. For example, coral reefs are having a harder and harder time growing under increasingly acidic conditions. Today, the world’s forests are being cleared at a rate of 20 football fields per minute! And the Sahara desert is expanding southward at a rate of 48km per year. Today, by many estimates, more than 50% of the species on the planet are considered threatened. The following time-lapse videos show dramatic changes in our planet from 1984 to today including urbanization, deforestation, and rapidly receding glaciers.
Warning Signs of Climate Change
Here are some of the warning signs of climate change shown in graphic images.
Three images of ocean acidification: one healthy with vibrant colors (375ppm); one with faded colors (450ppm); and one that is brown and colorless
Warming and Sea Level Rise
Deforestation and Desertification
So where are we headed? Will the large ice sheets completely melt in the next 90 years? Will the oceans become so acidic that no animals and plants can live? Will grasslands and other semi-arid regions completely dry up leading to famine for entire nations? The answer to these questions is almost certainly no. However, it is likely by the year 2100, if not considerably before, that ships will be able to sail from New York to Tokyo through the Northwest Passage (the route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans that runs through the Arctic) without icebreakers, that many species of coral will be extinct as a result of acid oceans and other causes, and that we will have witnessed the migration of massive numbers of people as a result of drought, famine, and sea-level rise.
Governments around the world are planning for these major changes. For example, the Pentagon is evaluating the impact of an open Northwest Passage on national security, energy policy, and fisheries. Biologists are evaluating the ability of species of coral to adapt to an ocean with lower pH and warmer temperatures. And nations from the developed and developing world are pursuing technologies that will expand the limits of habitable land.
The goal of this class is to survey the health of the planet today, with a strong emphasis on climate, and to provide an understanding of how scientists forecast this health will change in the future. We will learn that there are significant uncertainties in these forecasts that means that we must develop a playbook of strategies to deal with the possible changes that are to come. At the same time, we will monitor the impact of climate and other environmental changes on ecosystems, all the way from microscopic algae to humans.
Fortunately, Earth has witnessed rapid changes in climate and environment in the past and geologists have considerable expertise in extracting information on the exact nature of this change as well as how it affected life on the planet.
Quick Facts about Earth 103N
Drs. David M. Bice and Timothy J. Bralower, Professors of Geosciences, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University
Earth in the Future is an introduction to Earth's climate system and the challenges we will face in the near future because of these changes. Earth in the Future is required for the Certificate in Earth Sustainability and the Minor in Earth and Sustainability, and an entry-level course for Earth Science and Policy BS degree.
Topics of Study
The content of this course is divided into 12 lessons (modules). Each module will be completed in approximately 1 week.
|Module 1||Past Episodes of Climate Change|
|Module 2||Recent Climate Change|
|Module 3||Earth's Climate System|
|Module 4||Introduction to General Circulation Models|
|Module 5||Global Carbon Cycle|
|Module 6||Ocean Circulation and its Impact on Climate|
|Module 7||Ocean Acidification, Red Tides, and Monster Jellyfish|
|Module 8||Water Resources and Climate Change|
|Module 9||Climate Change and Food Supply|
|Module 10||Future Sea Level Change|
|Module 11||Terrestrial Ecosystems in Peril|
|Module 12||Adaption to and Mitigation of Climate Change|
Earth Futures is the brainchild of Eric Barron, founding Director of Earth System Science Center, former Dean of the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences at Penn State, now President of Penn State. We are also deeply grateful to learning designer April Millet in the Dutton e-Education Institute, Earth and Mineral Sciences at Penn State who took the materials and brought them to life. April not only kept us on task but she also continues to provide sage advice about the way we present science. This online course could not have been possible without her and Khusro Kidwai who gave us initial guidance. Thanks also to Dutton directors Annie Taylor and David DiBiase for encouragement, inspiration, and leadership.
Numerous people have helped point us in the right direction for parts of the course, although they are by no means to be held responsible for the content. They include Donna Green, Katrin Meissner, and Shane MacGregor at the Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Kamini Singha at Colorado School of Mines and Erica Smithwick at Penn State, Walter Barnhardt at the USGS, Scott Wing at the Smithsonian, Ellen Currano at Wyoming, and Dennis McGillicuddy at Woods Hole. We thank the staff of the Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales for their hospitality while this course was being developed.
Finally, the course would not have been possible without funding from NASA and the Australian-American Fulbright Commission.