PrintSometimes, climate change impacts create winners and losers. It's important to understand that climate change leading to food insecurity is more nuanced than it's hotter here and we can't grow food. Climate shifts happen regionally and it's important to understand what that looks like at a smaller scale. Take a look at this map of anticipated agricultural yields in the US by the end of the 21st century. What do you notice?
- As you look at the areas where much of our food is currently produced, how is the end of the century looking for them?
- As we look generally at the northwest corner of the US, we see a noticeable increase in agricultural productivity. But what activities currently happen in these areas?
The issue is more complicated than deciding to follow the climatic conditions with our farming. What does this mean for land use planning, both in the places which stand to lose productivity and those which stand to gain?
Figure 7.6 from the Fourth National Climate Assessment illustrates the expected changes in agricultural yields toward the end of the 21st century
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This figure shows the projected percent change in the yield of corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton during the period 2080-2099. Units represent average percent change in yields under the higher scenario (RCP8.5) as compared to a scenario of no additional climate change. Warmer colors (negative percent change) indicate large projected declines in yields (mostly east of the Mississippi River and in sourthern Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas); cooler colors (green) indicate moderate projected increases in yeilds (mostly west of the Mississippi River, and mostly in the northern areas of this region). Adapter from Hsiang et al. 2017
Credit: Fourth National Climate Assessment (2017) by USGCRP and Lipton et. al, 2018 (Fair Use)
- chocolate
- champagne and beer (for those of us over 21)
- avocados
- 5 major crops threatened by climate change (NPR, 2018)